The April 22, 2026, matchup at Nationals Park features a compelling divisional battle between the Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals. While Atlanta remains the heavy hitters of the NL East, Washington has proven to be a pesky home underdog throughout the first month of the season.
Tonight’s value lies in the specific pitching matchup: a battle of veteran command versus “stuff-plus” efficiency, featuring Martín Pérez and Zack Littell.
The Pitching Breakdown
Martín Pérez (Braves): Pérez has fully embraced his role as the Braves’ “stabilizer.” Entering tonight with a 3.65 ERA through four starts, Pérez doesn’t overpower hitters. Instead, he relies on a sinker-cutter combination that generates a 48% ground-ball rate. For Pérez, the key is the first pitch; when he gets ahead in the count, his changeup becomes a nightmare for right-handed hitters. Nationals Park plays slightly more neutral in the spring, but Pérez’s ability to keep the ball in the yard—allowing just two home runs so far in 2026—is his greatest asset against a scrappy Washington lineup.
Zack Littell (Nationals): Littell has been a revelation since transitioning to a full-time starter. He currently boasts a 3.18 ERA and an elite 1.04 WHIP. Unlike Pérez, Littell is a “vertical” attack pitcher. He uses a high-spin four-seam fastball to climb the ladder, which he tunnels effectively with a sharp slider. His challenge tonight is the Braves’ middle order. Atlanta leads the league in “Expected Slugging” against high fastballs, meaning Littell must be perfect with his location. If he misses over the heart of the plate, the Braves’ power bats will make it an early night for the Washington bullpen.
The 3 Best Bets
1. Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-145) The Braves are the superior team across almost every metric, and Pérez provides exactly the kind of “low-drama” innings needed to let the Atlanta offense work. While Littell is impressive, the Braves’ bullpen currently ranks #2 in the NL for “Strand Rate.” If this game is tied in the 7th, the depth of the Atlanta relief corps—led by Raisel Iglesias—gives them a massive situational edge over a Washington bullpen that has struggled with consistency in high-leverage spots.
2. Under 9.0 Total Runs (-115) Despite the offensive firepower in the Braves’ lineup, both starters are “contact managers” who excel at avoiding the big inning. Additionally, the wind is projected to be blowing in from right field at 8-10 mph at first pitch. Between Pérez’s ground-ball tendency and Littell’s ability to limit walks, a 5-2 or 4-3 final score is the most statistically probable outcome.
3. Zack Littell Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110) This is a value play on Littell’s “stuff.” While the Braves are a high-power team, they also carry one of the higher strikeout rates in the league when facing high-velocity right-handers. Littell has cleared this 5.5 mark in three of his four starts this year. At plus-money, you are betting on Littell’s slider to fool the aggressive Atlanta hitters at least six times through six innings.
Baseball Best Bets 