The Wednesday afternoon finale at Comerica Park offers a fascinating contrast in pitching trajectories. While the Milwaukee Brewers (11-10) lean on a fresh, high-velocity prospect to salvage the series, the Detroit Tigers (12-9) counter with a veteran workhorse finally reclaiming his pre-surgery form.
The Pitching Duel
Chad Patrick (MIL): The 27-year-old right-hander has been a revelation for the Brewers’ rotation. Patrick enters this start with a crisp 3.18 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP through 22.2 innings. Unlike many modern prospects who rely solely on heat, Patrick’s success stems from a “sweeper” that has generated a 34% whiff rate this season. However, this is his first career look at the Tigers’ lineup, and he has occasionally struggled with deep counts, averaging nearly 18 pitches per inning.
Casey Mize (DET): Mize is officially back. After years of injury-related setbacks, the former number-one overall pick is throwing his splitter with the same “diving” action that made him a collegiate star. He currently boasts a 3.42 ERA, but his underlying metrics are even more impressive: a 2.98 FIP suggests he’s been victimized by a few defensive lapses. Mize has been particularly dominant at home in 2026, where his ground-ball rate jumps to nearly 52%.
Best Bets for April 22
1. Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-125) The Tigers hold the situational edge here. Casey Mize is a “contact manager” who thrives in the vast gaps of Comerica Park, whereas Chad Patrick’s fly-ball tendencies can be risky if the wind is blowing out toward left-center. Furthermore, the Tigers’ bullpen has been significantly more reliable in high-leverage situations this month, ranking 4th in the American League in “Strand Rate.”
2. Under 8.0 Total Runs (-115) Day games in Detroit during late April usually feature heavy, cool air that keeps the ball in the yard. Both Mize and Patrick excel at avoiding the “big inning.” Mize’s ability to induce double plays and Patrick’s high-strikeout floor should keep this a low-scoring affair. Expect a methodical, 4-2 or 3-1 type of defensive struggle.
3. Player Prop: Casey Mize Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100) While Mize isn’t a traditional “power” pitcher, the Brewers’ lineup currently ranks 6th in the MLB in strikeout percentage (25.2%). Mize has cleared this 4.5 mark in three of his last four starts. Getting even money on a modest line for a pitcher who is consistently going 6+ innings offers excellent value.
The “Comerica” Factor: Watch the temperature at first pitch. If it’s below 55°F, the “Under” becomes the strongest play on the board. The ball simply does not carry in the Detroit humidity when the mercury drops, neutralizing power hitters like Rhys Hoskins and Riley Greene.
Baseball Best Bets 