he April 22, 2026, finale between the St. Louis Cardinals (13-9) and the Miami Marlins (11-12) at loanDepot park is a textbook “getaway day” matchup. With both teams navigating early-season rotation adjustments, this Wednesday matinee (12:10 p.m. ET) pits two pitchers against each other who are still trying to find their footing in the 2026 campaign.+1
The Pitching Matchup: Leahy vs. Junk
Kyle Leahy (Cardinals): Leahy has been a Swiss Army knife for St. Louis, but his transition to a more consistent starting role has been bumpy. Through four appearances in 2026, he carries a 5.21 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. While his strikeout numbers are modest (13 K in 19 IP), his underlying metrics suggest he is pitching to contact more than the Cardinals would like. His success today depends on his ability to keep the ball in the park; when he misses his spots, he tends to get hit hard, evidenced by his high opponent batting average early this season.
Janson Junk (Marlins): Junk has shown flashes of efficiency but has struggled to finish hitters. He enters this start with an 0-2 record and a 4.50 ERA. His most recent outing against Milwaukee was a mixed bag, as he surrendered four runs across 5.1 innings. However, Junk’s 3.91 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) indicates he’s been a bit unluckier than his ERA suggests. He possesses a solid ground-ball rate (over 50% this season), which is a crucial weapon against a Cardinals lineup that can turn fly balls into runs very quickly if the roof is open.+2
Best Bets for April 22
1. Miami Marlins Moneyline (-130) Miami has been a different team at home this season (9-5), and Janson Junk is due for a bit of positive regression. The Marlins’ offense has found a rhythm in this series, and their ability to grind out long at-bats should wear down Leahy early. With a 57.8% win probability according to recent simulations, the Marlins at -130 offer the most stable value on the board.
2. Over 8.5 Total Runs (-110) This is a classic “over” environment. You have two pitchers with ERAs north of 4.50 and two bullpens that have been taxed significantly over the first two games of this series. Both the Cardinals and Marlins have trended toward the Over this season (Cardinals 13-8; Marlins 14-7). Expect both offenses to capitalize on the lack of elite velocity from the starters, likely pushing this score into the double digits.+1
3. Player Prop: Ivan Herrera Over 0.5 Total Hits (-275) If you’re looking for a “lock” for a parlay, Herrera is the target. He currently leads the Cardinals with a .382 OBP and has been an on-base machine in the month of April. Against Junk’s sinker-heavy approach, Herrera’s ability to stay back and drive the ball to the opposite field makes him a high-probability candidate to record at least one knock today.
Baseball Best Bets 