The April 22, 2026, matinee at Citi Field features a fascinating interleague clash between the Minnesota Twins and the New York Mets. With both teams hovering near .500 in the early season, the narrative of this finale centers on Minnesota’s decision to hand the ball to Clay Holmes for a rare “spot start” or “opener” role.
While the baseball world knows Holmes as a high-leverage reliever with a devastating sinker, this tactical shift introduces massive variance into the betting lines.
The Pitching Dynamic
Clay Holmes (MIN) Holmes is not built for longevity, but he is built for ground balls. In 2026, his sinker is still averaging 96 mph with elite horizontal run. By starting Holmes, the Twins are likely attempting to “shorten the game,” using him to neutralize the Mets’ top-of-the-order lefties like Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo for two innings before pivoting to a bulk-inning long reliever.
The risk for Minnesota lies in the transition. Midweek “bullpen games” often fail in the 4th or 5th inning when a middle-reliever faces the heart of an order for the second time without the “stuff” to bail themselves out.
The Mets Counter New York enters this game with a rest advantage in their bullpen. Citi Field in late April is a pitcher’s haven; the heavy, humid air off Flushing Bay tends to suppress exit velocity, meaning fly balls that would be home runs in Target Field often die at the warning track. The Mets’ offensive strategy today will likely be one of attrition — driving up Holmes’ pitch count early to get into the soft underbelly of the Minnesota relief corps by the 3rd inning.
Best Bets for April 22
1. New York Mets Moneyline (-132) The Mets are the “sharper” play here due to the stability of their pitching plan compared to Minnesota’s experimental start. Clay Holmes is elite, but the Twins are playing a dangerous game with their bullpen depth. New York’s ability to work deep counts and exploit the “bulk” pitcher following Holmes gives them a significant situational edge. At -132, you are betting on the more traditional, stable roster construction.
2. Under 8.0 Total Runs (-115) Despite the “bullpen game” volatility, Citi Field is arguably the best “Under” park in the National League during day games. Both teams feature top-10 defensive units in terms of Outs Above Average (OAA). If Holmes does his job and induces ground balls for the first six outs, the pace of the game will likely settle into a low-scoring affair. A 4-2 or 4-1 final is highly probable given the cool, dense air projected for Wednesday.
3. Total Bases: Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-140) Lindor has historically struggled against high-velocity sinkers that run in on his hands — exactly what Holmes provides. Even if Lindor gets three more at-bats against the Minnesota bullpen, the Twins’ relief staff is righty-heavy, which neutralizes Lindor’s power from the left side. Expect a quiet afternoon at the plate for the Mets’ captain.
Baseball Best Bets 