The Thursday afternoon finale at Nationals Park features a compelling divisional battle between the Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals. While the Braves entered the series as heavy favorites in the NL East, Washington has shown a scrappy ability to play spoiler at home.
The pitching matchup for April 23, 2026, presents a stark contrast: the veteran stability of Martín Pérez against the high-ceiling, post-Tommy John potential of Cade Cavalli.
The Pitching Breakdown
Martín Pérez (ATL): Pérez has been a stabilizing force for the Braves’ rotation this spring. Entering this start with a sharp 2.21 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, he has relied on a savvy mix of sinkers and cutters to keep hitters off-balance. Pérez isn’t a high-velocity threat, but his ability to induce ground balls (37.9% GB rate in 2026) is perfect for navigating a Nationals lineup that tends to be aggressive early in the count. His 20.1 innings of work so far have been defined by efficiency, rarely letting games spiral into high-leverage chaos.
Cade Cavalli (WSH): Cavalli is the “wild card” of the afternoon. Finally healthy and untethered from strict workload restrictions, the 27-year-old right-hander is flashing the 97-mph heat that made him a top prospect. While his 4.12 ERA and 1.73 WHIP suggest some early-season volatility, his 18 strikeouts in 19.2 innings showcase his swing-and-miss stuff. Cavalli’s primary hurdle remains his efficiency; he has struggled to go deep into games, often hitting high pitch counts by the 5th inning. Against a disciplined Braves lineup, any lapse in command will be punished quickly.
Strategic Best Bets
1. Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-142) Despite the getaway-day nature of a Thursday afternoon game, the Braves hold the decisive edge. Martín Pérez is currently in a “rhythm” that Cavalli is still searching for. Furthermore, the Braves’ bullpen depth provides a much more reliable safety net if the starters exit early. Washington’s home record (3-8) has been a significant weakness this season, while the Braves have maintained a steady .667 winning percentage on the road.
2. Under 9.0 Total Runs (-115) Day games following a night game often feature “sluggish” offenses as starters get rested and timing is slightly off. With Pérez specializing in inducing soft contact and Cavalli possessing the pure stuff to escape jams with strikeouts, a high-scoring explosion is unlikely. Expect a methodical, 5-2 or 4-1 type of defensive struggle that stays well under the total of 9.
3. Cade Cavalli Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130) Cavalli has reached the 5th inning in only one of his five starts this season. The Braves lead the league in “pitches seen per plate appearance,” meaning they are likely to grind Cavalli down and force him out of the game by the end of the 5th inning (15 outs). Bet on the Braves’ veterans to drive up his pitch count early and get into the Nationals’ middle relief.
Baseball Best Bets 