The April 23, 2026, finale at Citi Field finds two teams trending in opposite directions. The Minnesota Twins enter the series finale looking to solidify their standing in the AL Central, while the New York Mets are desperate to find a spark amid a brutal early-season slump that saw them drop 12 consecutive games leading into the week.
The Pitching Breakdown
Joe Ryan (MIN): Joe Ryan has been the anchor of the Twins’ rotation this spring. Entering this start with a 3.29 ERA and an elite 0.88 WHIP, Ryan continues to baffle hitters with his “invisible” four-seam fastball. His success is largely predicated on elite command; through 27.1 innings, he has struck out 28 batters while issuing only six walks. His most recent outing against the Reds saw him surrender just one earned run over six innings, proving he is in mid-season form. Ryan’s high-spin heater is a nightmare for a Mets lineup that has struggled to time up high-velocity right-handers this month.+2
Christian Scott (NYM): On the other side, the Mets are turning to the young flamethrower Christian Scott. While his 4.56 career MLB ERA reflects some growing pains, Scott is a high-ceiling arm who can miss bats with his mid-90s heater and sweeping slider. Through his limited 2026 appearances, he has maintained a high strikeout rate but has been victimized by the long ball. For Scott, the goal is simple: survive the first two innings. If he can settle in without allowing a crooked number to the heart of the Twins’ order, his “swing-and-miss” stuff is potent enough to keep the Mets in the hunt.
The 3 Best Bets
1. Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-135) The discrepancy in pitching stability is too large to ignore. Joe Ryan is a proven commodity who rarely beats himself, while the Mets are still waiting for their revamped lineup to find any semblance of rhythm. With the Mets’ bullpen being taxed heavily during their recent losing streak, the Twins have a significant advantage in the late innings. Expect the Twins’ veteran discipline to wear down Scott early and allow their relief corps to seal the win.
2. Under 8.0 Total Runs (-110) While both teams have power potential, Citi Field remains a “pitcher’s haven.” Joe Ryan is elite at suppressing big innings, and Scott has the pure stuff to escape jams via the strikeout. Furthermore, the Mets’ offense is currently struggling to produce with runners in scoring position, and the Twins have trended toward the Under in 65% of their road games this month. A 4-2 or 3-1 result is the most likely outcome.
3. Player Prop: Joe Ryan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110) The Mets’ lineup currently carries a high strikeout rate against right-handed power pitchers. Joe Ryan has reached at least six strikeouts in four of his five starts this season and has a history of dominating lineups that struggle with high-spin fastballs. At plus-money, you are betting on Ryan to exploit a frustrated New York order that is pressing to snap out of its offensive funk.
The “Citi” Edge: Watch the early innings closely. If the Twins jump out to a 2-0 lead against Scott, the Mets’ morale—already fragile from their recent skid—could lead to an aggressive, undisciplined approach at the plate that plays right into Joe Ryan’s hands.
Baseball Best Bets 