On Saturday, April 25, 2026, the Boston Red Sox continue their division rivalry against the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards. This afternoon matchup highlights a battle of southpaws: the high-ceiling but struggling Garrett Crochet for Boston and the consistent Trevor Rogers for Baltimore. With both teams navigating uneven starts to the 2026 campaign, this game offers significant value for bettors looking at individual pitching trends and offensive splits.+1
The Pitching Breakdown
Garrett Crochet (BOS): Garrett Crochet enters this start with a polarizing stat line that betrays his elite potential. Through five starts, he carries a 2-3 record with a ballooned 7.88 ERA. While his strikeout numbers remain impressive—totaling 30 punchouts in just 24 innings—he has been plagued by the “big inning.” In his last two outings, he surrendered a combined 15 runs, including a 10-run blowup against Minnesota. For Crochet, the mission is reclaiming the command of his high-velocity heater and wipeout slider that earned him an Opening Day win. If he can avoid deep counts, his “stuff” is capable of silencing any lineup.
Trevor Rogers (BAL): Trevor Rogers has been a stabilizing force for the Orioles’ rotation since joining the club. He sports a 2-2 record and a much more palatable 4.08 ERA. Rogers is coming off a tough loss to Cleveland where he allowed five runs, but his season-long metrics are encouraging, specifically a 1.33 WHIP. He has proven particularly effective at Camden Yards, where the deep left-field wall rewards his fly-ball tendencies. Rogers relies on a deceptive changeup to keep right-handed power hitters like Pete Alonso and Willson Contreras off-balance.
Best Bets for April 25
1. Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (-116) While the Red Sox have the higher strikeout upside with Crochet, the Orioles have been the far more reliable team in this specific pitching matchup. Rogers has shown he can pitch deep into games, whereas Crochet has struggled to clear the fifth inning recently. Baltimore has won 60% of their games as favorites this season, while Boston has struggled as road underdogs. At a near-even price, the home-field advantage and Rogers’ stability make the Orioles the smarter play.+1
2. Over 8.0 Total Runs (-115) The total for this game is set at 8, which feels low given the current form of both starters. Crochet’s high ERA suggests he is liable to give up a crooked number early, and while Rogers is steady, the Red Sox offense still features dangerous bats like Wilyer Abreu and Gunnar Henderson (for the O’s). Baltimore has hit the over in 15 of their first 25 games this year. Expect a final score in the 6-4 or 5-4 range, clearing the total comfortably.+1
3. Garrett Crochet Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110) Despite his recent struggles with run prevention, Crochet’s ability to miss bats hasn’t wavered. He has recorded at least seven strikeouts in three of his five starts this season. The Orioles’ lineup features high-usage power hitters who are prone to the swing-and-miss, especially against left-handed velocity. Even if the Red Sox lose the game, Crochet is a strong bet to rack up punchouts in the early frames.
The Sharp Edge: Keep an eye on the Orioles’ “Team Total Over.” Boston’s bullpen has been heavily taxed this week, and if Crochet is chased early, Baltimore will face a relief corps that has struggled to strand inherited runners.
Baseball Best Bets 