On Saturday night, April 25, 2026, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers continue their National League Central battle at American Family Field. This matchup serves as a marquee showcase for the division’s pitching depth, featuring Pirates veteran anchor Mitch Keller against the Brewers’ electric young flamethrower, Jacob Misiorowski. With both teams entering the series with winning records, the outcome of this contest could provide significant early-season momentum in the race for the Central crown.
The Pitching Breakdown
Mitch Keller (PIT): Mitch Keller has refined himself into one of the National League’s most reliable workhorses. He enters this start with a sharp 2.79 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP through 29.0 innings. Keller is fresh off a vintage performance on April 19, where he tossed a season-high seven innings, allowing just two earned runs while striking out five. His command has reached peak levels in 2026; he issued zero walks in his last outing, showcasing a pinpoint ability to locate his mid-90s four-seamer and biting sweeper. For Keller, the goal in Milwaukee is to navigate a Brewers lineup that has shown high-scoring potential at home but occasionally struggles against disciplined right-handers who can change planes.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): The Brewers counter with Jacob Misiorowski, a 6’7″ powerhouse who has become a nightmare for opposing hitters. Through five starts, Misiorowski carries a 3.04 ERA with a staggering 42 strikeouts in just 26.2 innings. His 14.2 K/9 rate is among the highest in the majors, fueled by a triple-digit fastball and a slider that generates elite whiff rates. While his 1.09 WHIP is nearly identical to Keller’s, Misiorowski has dealt with occasional command lapses, as seen in his last start where he walked three batters in five innings. However, he has historically dominated the Pirates, boasting a career 0.75 ERA against Pittsburgh. If he avoids high pitch counts early, his raw “stuff” is capable of completely silencing the Pirates’ order.
Best Bets for April 25
1. Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-130) The Brewers enter as slight home favorites, and for good reason. Jacob Misiorowski’s history against the Pirates is too dominant to ignore, and the Brewers have been one of the league’s best home teams this spring. While Keller is pitching at an All-Star level, Misiorowski’s ability to generate strikeouts at a historic pace gives the Brewers a higher ceiling in the early frames. In a tight divisional game, the home-field advantage and the Brewers’ bullpen depth provide the edge.
2. Under 7.5 Total Runs (-110) This total reflects a classic pitching duel between two arms in top form. Keller has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his five starts, and Misiorowski has been nearly unhittable when he is in the zone. American Family Field often plays as a pitcher’s park when the roof is closed, and both rotations excel at limiting hard contact. Expect a clinical 3-1 or 4-2 result that stays under the total.
3. Jacob Misiorowski Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+105) Misiorowski has cleared this mark in four of his five starts this season, including a 12-strikeout gem earlier this month. The Pirates’ lineup features several high-strikeout profiles who struggle with high-velocity right-handers. Even if Misiorowski only pitches five or six innings, his current strikeout rate makes this a high-probability value play at plus-money.
The Sharp Edge: Watch for Brice Turang in the Brewers’ lineup. He has been on a tear at home, hitting safely in 19 of his last 25 games at American Family Field. If he gets on base early against Keller, his speed on the paths could create the high-stress environment needed to break a low-scoring tie.
Baseball Best Bets 