On Saturday, April 25, 2026, the St. Louis Cardinals travel to PNC Park to face the Pittsburgh Pirates in a crucial National League Central showdown. This matchup features two pitchers in very different stages of their careers: a high-octane right-hander reclaiming his status as an ace and a veteran left-hander serving as the bridge for a young Pirates rotation.
The Pitching Breakdown
Dustin May (STL): Dustin May has been the spark plug for the Cardinals’ rotation this April. After a rocky first two starts of the 2026 campaign, May has found his elite rhythm. He enters this start with a 3-2 record and a 5.84 ERA, but that number is heavily inflated by a single seven-run blowout in Detroit. In his three starts since, May has been dominant, allowing just three earned runs over his last 17.1 innings of work. His most recent outing was a surgical 5.1-inning performance against Miami, where he showcased a sinker averaging 99.1 mph. May’s ability to limit walks (only 5 in 24.2 innings) has stabilized a Cardinals defense that was leaky early in the season.+1
Mike Montgomery (PIT): The Pirates counter with the veteran Mike Montgomery, whose primary value in 2026 has been providing stability to a pitching staff in transition. Montgomery, known for his heavy ground-ball rate (53.6% career), relies on a deep repertoire of off-speed pitches to keep hitters off-balance. While he doesn’t possess the high-velocity “stuff” of Dustin May, Montgomery’s ability to navigate the strike zone and induce soft contact remains his calling card. For the Pirates, Montgomery’s goal is to survive the first two turns through a potent Cardinals lineup, allowing their high-leverage relievers like Mason Montgomery to take over in the late innings.
Strategic Best Bets
1. St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline (-142) The Cardinals enter as the clear tactical play. Dustin May has won three consecutive starts and is currently pitching with a confidence that few in the National League can match. While Montgomery is a steady veteran, he lacks the swing-and-miss upside required to silence a Cardinals offense that has scored 13 runs over their last three games. Expect the Cardinals’ power bats to find success against Montgomery’s sinker early in the contest.
2. Under 8.5 Total Runs (-110) While the Cardinals’ offense is clicking, PNC Park historically plays as a pitcher-friendly venue in the early spring. Dustin May’s recent dominance (1.55 ERA over his last three starts) suggests the Pirates will struggle to put up a crooked number. On the other side, Montgomery is an expert at inducing double plays to escape jams. A 5-2 or 4-1 final score in favor of the visitors is the most likely outcome.
3. Dustin May Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125) May has cleared this mark in each of his last three starts, including a five-K performance against the Marlins. The Pirates’ lineup features several young, aggressive hitters who are prone to the high-velocity sinkers and “turbo” sliders that May specializes in. As long as May pitches into the sixth inning, he should comfortably reach this total.
The Sharp Edge: Watch for Nathan Church in the Cardinals’ lineup. He has been May’s primary run-support provider this month, including a massive home run in May’s last start. If Church is hitting in the top half of the order, he is a strong candidate for an “Over 0.5 RBIs” prop bet.
Baseball Best Bets 