The final day of April 2026 brings a high-stakes cross-divisional clash to Wrigley Field, as the Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs meet for a crucial matinee. Both teams have battled for positioning early this season, with the Cubs (19-12) looking to protect their home turf and the Diamondbacks (16-14) aiming to prove their 2023 magic wasn’t a one-off. This matchup features two left-handed hitters’ nightmares on the mound: a hard-throwing sinker-baller and a Japanese import whose “ghost” splitter has haunted the National League all spring.

The Pitching Breakdown

Ryne Nelson (ARI): Ryne Nelson enters this start following a turbulent opening month. Currently sitting at 1-2 with a bloated 7.71 ERA, Nelson’s surface numbers tell the story of a pitcher struggling with command and hard contact. Through 25.2 innings, he has surrendered 22 earned runs, evidenced by a 1.52 WHIP. However, there are signs of hope; in his most recent outing on April 26 against San Diego, Nelson showcased his “ride” with a fastball touching 96.3 MPH. While he allowed six runs in that contest, he retired seven of the last eight batters he faced. For Nelson, success at Wrigley depends on his ability to locate that high-velocity heater and keep a disciplined Cubs lineup from feasting on mistakes over the heart of the plate.

Shota Imanaga (CHC): The Cubs counter with their breakout star, Shota Imanaga. Imanaga has been a revelation in Chicago, entering this contest with 38 strikeouts and a WHIP that has consistently flirted with the league lead. While he took a hard-luck loss in his last start against the Dodgers—allowing five runs over 5.1 innings—his overall body of work has been elite. Imanaga averages 6.4 strikeouts per game and relies on a deceptive splitter and a sweeping slider that left-handed hitters find nearly impossible to barrel. Against a Diamondbacks lineup led by the red-hot Ildemaro Vargas (.378 AVG), Imanaga’s ability to generate “chase” swings outside the zone will be the determining factor.

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Strategic Best Bets

1. Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-138) The Cubs are the clear favorites in this series finale. Shota Imanaga’s ability to limit baserunners provides a much higher floor than Ryne Nelson’s current 7.71 ERA. The Cubs’ offense has been particularly potent at home, and facing a pitcher who has struggled to keep the ball in the park is a recipe for success. With a top-ten bullpen ready to bridge the gap, the Cubs are a strong bet to secure the victory.

2. Over 7.5 Total Runs (-106) Wrigley Field can quickly turn into a hitter’s paradise when the wind cooperates, and both starters have shown a vulnerability to the “big inning” this month. Nelson has allowed three or more runs in four of his six starts, while Imanaga is coming off an outing where he was tagged for five runs. Given the offensive firepower on both sides, expect a back-and-forth affair that clears the 7.5-run threshold comfortably.

3. Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114) Imanaga has cleared this total in four of his five starts this year. The Diamondbacks’ lineup, while improved, remains prone to high-velocity splitters. If Imanaga can settle into a rhythm early and work into the sixth inning, his elite strikeout rate should easily carry him past this mark.

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The Sharp Edge: Watch Nico Hoerner. The Cubs’ second baseman has been exceptional against high-velocity right-handers this season, leading the team with 26 RBIs. If Nelson struggles with his fastball location early, Hoerner is the prime candidate for an “Over 1.5 Total Bases” prop win.