The Milwaukee Brewers (22–11) travel to Busch Stadium on Monday, May 4, 2026, to open an early-season divisional clash against the St. Louis Cardinals (18–15). As the Brewers look to solidify their grip on the National League Central, St. Louis aims to erase a disappointing negative run differential and defend their home turf. This matchup features a contrast between a young Brewers arm enjoying a breakout season and a Cardinals veteran navigating a difficult transition to the rotation.

The Pitching Breakdown

Chad Patrick (MIL): The Brewers hand the ball to Chad Patrick, who has become a foundational piece of Milwaukee’s pitching factory this spring. Patrick enters Monday with a 2–1 record, a 2.57 ERA, and a 1.25 WHIP through six starts. He is fresh off a brilliant performance on April 28 against the Diamondbacks, where he held Arizona hitless through four innings before finishing with five strikeouts over five frames. While he has occasionally battled command issues—surrendering five walks in his last outing—his ability to limit damage has been elite, allowing two or fewer runs in five of his six appearances. For Patrick, the goal in St. Louis is to harness his mid-90s heater and keep a dangerous Cardinals middle-of-the-order off-balance. +1

Kevin Leahy (STL): The Cardinals counter with Kevin Leahy, who is undergoing a heavy-workload transition from the bullpen to the rotation. Leahy currently carries a 3–3 record with a bloated 5.52 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. While he leads all National League relievers in total innings over the last year, his recent starts have been a struggle; he is coming off an outing where he yielded a season-high nine hits. Despite the high ERA, Leahy remains a high-floor veteran who throws six different pitches and has shown improved control with a 7.6% walk rate. To find success on Monday, Leahy must rely on his elite extension and breaking ball run value to induce soft contact against a Milwaukee lineup that averages over five runs per game. +2

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Strategic Best Bets

1. Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-110) With the odds essentially a pick’em, the value lies with the visitors. Chad Patrick has been the more consistent run-preventer this season, boasting a 2.57 ERA compared to Leahy’s 5.52. Furthermore, the Brewers’ defense has been superior, and their bullpen currently ranks significantly higher in strikeout-to-walk ratio. Given Leahy’s tendency to surrender hits (38 in 29.1 innings), a disciplined Milwaukee offense is likely to capitalize on early traffic.

2. Over 8.5 Total Runs (-105) Both teams feature offenses capable of erupting. The Brewers are averaging 5.16 runs per game, while the Cardinals counter with a respectable 4.68. Considering Leahy’s 1.67 WHIP and Patrick’s recent struggle with walks, there is a high probability for baserunners throughout the evening. Busch Stadium can play neutral, but with these specific pitching metrics, a 6–4 or 5–4 final score is a strong possibility.

3. Chad Patrick Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115) Patrick has proven he can miss bats when his command is on, recording 16 strikeouts in 28 innings this season. The Cardinals’ lineup, while veteran-heavy, has shown vulnerability to high-velocity right-handers with late movement. As long as Patrick avoids the early-inning walk issues that plagued his last start, his natural “stuff” should carry him past this total.

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The Sharp Edge: Watch Jordan Walker. The Cardinals’ young outfielder is hitting .315 with 10 home runs this season. If Patrick struggles with his fastball location early, Walker is the prime candidate for an “Over 1.5 Total Bases” prop win.