The Pittsburgh Pirates begin a three-game road series against the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday night at Citizens Bank Park. The matchup features an intriguing pitching duel between rookie right-hander Braxton Ashcraft and veteran Aaron Nola, creating several attractive betting opportunities for MLB bettors.

While Philadelphia enters the series as the home favorite, the pitching matchup could make this game more competitive than the betting line suggests. Here’s a breakdown of the best bets for the June 29 showdown.

Pirates vs. Phillies Starting Pitchers

The Pirates are expected to start Braxton Ashcraft, who has been one of Pittsburgh’s breakout performers this season. Ashcraft enters Monday with a 7-3 record, a 3.07 ERA, and 107 strikeouts. His ability to limit hard contact while consistently working deep into games has made him one of the National League’s pleasant surprises. His strong command and swing-and-miss arsenal give Pittsburgh a legitimate chance against one of baseball’s better offenses.

Philadelphia counters with veteran right-hander Aaron Nola, who has endured an uncharacteristically difficult season. Nola enters with a 3-4 record and a 5.58 ERA, although his strikeout ability remains intact with 82 punchouts. While his underlying metrics suggest he has pitched better than his ERA indicates, inconsistency and home run issues have prevented him from returning to his All-Star form.

Best Bet: Pirates +1.5 Runs

Philadelphia deserves respect at home, but Ashcraft has been the more reliable starter entering this matchup. Pittsburgh has remained competitive throughout June and possesses enough offensive talent to keep this game close against a Phillies rotation that has been inconsistent beyond its top starters.

With Ashcraft’s current form, taking the Pirates on the run line provides solid value, especially if Philadelphia remains a sizable favorite.

Best Bet: Pirates +1.5 Runs

Best Total Bet: Under 8 Runs

Despite Citizens Bank Park being one of the National League’s better hitter-friendly venues, this projects as a lower-scoring contest. Ashcraft has consistently limited opposing offenses, and Nola still has the strikeout ability to work out of trouble when his command is sharp.

If both starters pitch into the sixth inning, the under becomes an attractive betting option.

Pick: Under 8 Runs

Best Player Prop

Braxton Ashcraft Over Strikeouts

The Phillies feature a powerful lineup, but they also produce plenty of strikeouts against quality right-handed pitching. Ashcraft has averaged more than one strikeout per inning this season and has shown the ability to miss bats against playoff-caliber opponents. If he reaches six innings, his strikeout prop offers excellent value.

Final Prediction

This game feels closer than the odds may indicate. Philadelphia has the more explosive offense and home-field advantage, but Ashcraft’s breakout campaign gives Pittsburgh a legitimate opportunity to steal the opener. Expect a competitive, low-scoring game decided in the late innings.

Best Bets

• Pirates +1.5 Runs
• Under 8 Runs
• Braxton Ashcraft Over Strikeouts

Prediction: Phillies 4, Pirates 3.