The final installment of this three-game series at Great American Ball Park presents a distinct starting pitching advantage that heavily favors the visitors. The Philadelphia Phillies will hand the ball to left-hander Jesús Luzardo (7-4, 3.75 ERA). Luzardo enters this contest with massive momentum after officially being named to the National League All-Star roster as an injury replacement on Wednesday. Pacing the Phillies with 125 strikeouts, the electric lefty has yielded one or fewer earned runs in three of his last five outings, proving he can suppress high-octane offenses.

The Cincinnati Reds will counter with right-hander Brady Singer (3-8, 5.03 ERA). Singer has endured a highly volatile 2026 campaign, routinely struggling with his mechanical command and leaving his sinker up in the zone. Navigating a patient, power-heavy Philadelphia batting order that features standard elite threats presents an incredibly steep uphill battle for a pitcher carrying a 5.03 ERA into the midsummer stretch.

Why the Phillies Bounce Back

Philadelphia dropped an 11-5 decision on Wednesday night after a rare bullpen collapse, but they hold an authoritative edge in Thursday’s matchup. According to oddsmakers, the first-place Phillies carry a strong 60.3% theoretical win probability to secure the road victory.

While Cincinnati’s bats came alive on Wednesday behind historic multi-homer performances from rising stars like Sal Stewart, replicating that explosion against a premium left-handed arm like Luzardo is a completely different task. Left-handers have given the bottom half of Cincinnati’s lineup fits all year. The Phillies boast a superior road record (26-20) and have historically taken care of business following double-digit defensive lapses. Laying the reasonable price on the superior starting pitcher is the sharpest straight side bet on the board.

Bank on the Bats at Great American Ball Park

For those tracking total markets, targeting the Over 9 runs line is a premier option. Great American Ball Park is historically recognized as one of the most hitter-friendly environments in Major League Baseball, a trait that was fully on display during Wednesday’s 16-run explosion.

Even with Luzardo executing at an All-Star level, the Reds boast dynamic threats like Elly De La Cruz who can generate runs purely out of chaotic baserunning. On the other side, Singer’s high hard-contact rate means sluggers like Kyle Schwarber—who just launched his MLB-leading 32nd home run of the season on Wednesday—are primed to drive the ball deep into the seats. Expect both offenses to contribute early, driving the score well past the threshold.