The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs meet at Wrigley Field this Thursday, May 7, 2026, for the finale of their four-game series. In a division battle that has seen the Cubs surge to the top of the NL Central with a blistering home record, the Reds are looking to play spoiler and salvage a tough road trip. The pitching matchup features a battle between high-upside youth and a seasoned international star.

The Pitching Matchup: Lowder vs. Imanaga

The Reds send rookie right-hander Rhett Lowder to the mound. Lowder enters this start with a 3-2 record and a 5.09 ERA. While the ERA looks a bit elevated, the former first-round pick has shown flashes of brilliance, striking out 26 batters in his limited action. His primary challenge has been the “big inning,” where command lapses have allowed opponents to string together hits. In his last start, Lowder showed improved composure, and the Reds are banking on his mid-90s sinker to induce ground balls against a dangerous Cubs lineup that loves to loft the ball into the bleachers.

The Cubs counter with their left-handed ace, Shota Imanaga. The “Throwing Philosopher” has been sensational in 2026, posting a 3-2 record with a dominant 2.40 ERA. Imanaga’s 1.05 WHIP and 43 strikeouts in roughly 40 innings highlight his ability to miss bats and limit free passes. He has been particularly effective at Wrigley Field, where his high-spin fastball and devastating splitter have kept hitters off-balance. Coming off a seven-strikeout performance against the Padres, Imanaga is currently pitching like a Cy Young contender.

Best Bets for May 7, 2026

1. Moneyline: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have been nearly unbeatable at home this season, entering this game on a significant winning streak at the Friendly Confines. With Imanaga on the mound, they have a clear advantage in the starting pitching department. Lowder’s 5.09 ERA suggests he will give up a few opportunities, and the Cubs’ offense—led by Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ—is too disciplined to let those chances slide. Expect the Cubs to control the tempo from the first pitch.

2. Under 8.5 Total Runs

While Lowder has a high ERA, he is a talent capable of keeping games competitive, and Imanaga is a flat-out run-suppressor. The Reds’ offense has struggled with consistency recently, and facing a lefty with Imanaga’s command is a tall task. If both pitchers are on their game, this has the feel of a 4-2 or 3-1 type of afternoon. Betting on the “Under” is a strong play given the Cubs’ elite pitching staff and the early afternoon shadows at Wrigley.

3. Player Prop: Shota Imanaga Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Imanaga is a strikeout artist, and the Reds’ young core, including Elly De La Cruz, tends to have high swing-and-miss rates against elite breaking stuff. Imanaga has cleared the 6.5 strikeout mark in three of his last four starts. Given his familiarity with the Reds’ hitters and his current form, he is well-positioned to rack up another high K-count.

The first pitch is scheduled for 1:20 PM local time. With a marquee pitching matchup and the Cubs looking to extend their dominance in the NL Central, all eyes will be on the mound at Wrigley Field.