The Arizona Diamondbacks look to bounce back at home as slim underdogs against the Chicago Cubs on August 25, 2026, at Chase Field. The Cubs carry significant momentum into this middle matchup of the three-game set, boasting a 75-56 record and sitting comfortably in second place in the National League Central. Arizona counters with a 69-62 record, desperately needing to defend their 38-28 home record to protect their wild-card position in the competitive National League West. Bookmakers currently favor the visiting squad, listing the Cubs as a short -115 moneyline favorite, while the Diamondbacks sit at -105, with the game’s over/under line expecting plenty of offense at 9 total runs.

The Starting Pitching Matchup

The Chicago Cubs will hand the ball to right-hander Clay Holmes for Tuesday’s showdown. Transitioning into a reliable, consistent piece of Chicago’s rotation since being acquired, Holmes brings a 5-6 record paired with an elite 2.49 ERA and a stellar 3.43 FIP across his appearances this season. Spanning 50 strikeouts on the year, Holmes features a heavy ground-ball profile that effectively neutralizes opposing power hitters. This pitching style matches up beautifully against a top-heavy Arizona offense that relies on high-velocity line drives to score runs.

The Arizona Diamondbacks counter by deploying their talented 27-year-old right-hander, Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt has put together a highly productive campaign, carrying a strong 7-1 record alongside a stable 3.39 ERA and a 3.99 FIP into this critical August start. Pfaadt features excellent command, posting a sharp strikeout-to-walk ratio that keeps heavy traffic off the base paths. However, navigating a red-hot Cubs lineup that features explosive bats like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Conforto will force Pfaadt to be flawless from the first pitch.

Best Gambling Bets

The premier bet for this matchup is taking the Chicago Cubs on the moneyline at -115. Chicago has played exceptional baseball away from Wrigley Field all year, and Clay Holmes gives them a major analytical edge on the mound. Arizona’s bullpen depth has endured severe fatigue over the past week, leaving their late-inning options highly vulnerable if Pfaadt exits the game early. Trust the Cubs to execute in the middle innings and secure a narrow road victory.

The second best bet for this contest is hammering the Under 9 total runs. While Chase Field is generally regarded as a friendly environment for hitters when the roof is closed, both starting pitchers possess the specific metrics required to suppress explosive, multi-run frames. Holmes relies heavily on forcing soft ground-ball contact, which completely neutralizes the natural carry of the stadium. Meanwhile, Pfaadt’s ability to limit free passes should keep the Cubs from stringing together large, crooked numbers. Expect a highly tactical, low-scoring battle that safely stays under the bookmakers’ line. Pairing the Cubs moneyline with the under provides excellent leverage for Tuesday night.